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["MODEL TITLE AND PURPOSE"]
["Model title: Can Pandemic Preparedness Benefit from Health-Economic Modelling? The Case for Nipah Virus"]
[]
["Global pandemic preparedness efforts rely on epidemiological models like the SEIR framework (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered). However, SEIR models alone may not fully support healthcare decision-making, especially concerning resource allocation and economic impacts. This study integrates health economic (HE) modeling into SEIR to assess the cost-effectiveness of treatments for potential future pandemics, using Nipah virus as a case study."]
[]
["Target population: Adults at risk for Nipah infection "]
["Perspective: Healthcare systems "]
[]
[]
["MODEL OVERVIEW"]
["Model type: Markov Monte-Carlo Model "]
["Time horizon: 120 weeks"]
["Cycle length: Weekly cycles "]
["Discount rates: 3% "]
["Currency and price year: EUR, 2023"]
[]
["Intervention: Standard care "]
["Comparator: Ribavirin "]
[]
[]
["WORKBOOK STRUCTURE"]
[]
["ReadMe – Overview, instructions, and contact details."]
[]
["Inputs & Results – All model parameters with the option to be edited with respective microsimulation results. "]
[]
["1. Strategy Calcs – Markov State Graph and Cohort State Proportions for Standard care. "]
[]
["2. Strategy Calcs – Markov State Graph and Cohort State Proportions for Ribavirin. "]
[]
["State Trans Diag – State Transition Diagram for all comparators. "]
[]
["Input Tables – All tables used in the model, here table for general mortality. "]
[]
["Original Data & Results – Original model input and cost-effectiveness rankings. "]
[]
["Time Discounting – Table overview over discounted model values. "]
[]
[]
["HOW TO USE THIS MODEL"]
[]
["For base-case results:"]
[]
["Go to the Original Data & Results sheet to view total costs, QALYs, incremental results, and ICER."]
[]
["To change inputs:"]
[]
["Go to the Inputs & Results sheet. Edit cells highlighted in green (user input). Do not modify other cells. Results are recalculated on pressing Enter. "]
[]
[]
["CONTACT"]
["Contact: wendelin.schramm@hs-heilbronn.de "]
["Model version: 1.1"]
["Date: 19/01/2026"]
[" Nipah Project Webseite"]

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[]
[null,"Model Information"]
[null,"DESCRIPTION"]
[null,"Nipah Virus Model"]
[]
[null,"STRATEGIES"]
[null,"Standard Care"]
[null,""]
[null,"Ribavirin"]
[null,""]
[]
[null,"Green cells are editable"]
[null,"Gray cells - no impact on calculation"]
[null,"INPUTS",null,null,null,"MODEL RESULTS"]
[null,"Description","Value","Reference in TreeAge",null,"WTP:",23500]
[null,"Parameter Variables",null,null,null,"Strategy","Cost","Eff","Payoff 3 - \nQuality of Life"]
[null,"per definition 100%",1,"pDeadToDead",null,"Standard Care",{"$f":"'1. Strategy Calcs'!L130","v":1522.7961598137811},{"$f":"'1. Strategy Calcs'!O130","v":109.40056476002853},{"$f":"'1. Strategy Calcs'!R130","v":103.90601609339367}]
[null,"Probability to be infected by Nipah virus, in an active outbreak",0.10209923998815162,"pHealthyToInfected",null,"Ribavirin",{"$f":"'2. Strategy Calcs'!L130","v":1601.7058066015209},{"$f":"'2. Strategy Calcs'!O130","v":112.01677843557511},{"$f":"'2. Strategy Calcs'!R130","v":106.38824661883875}]
[null,"Probability to get the overt disease, when infected",0.42409855093467608,"pInfectedToDiseased"]
[null,"Probability to Die when experiencing a relapse of the Nipa virus disease",4.8402125993473155E-2,"pRelapseToDeath"]
[null,"TDC for drugs in standard care",25,"cDrugs",null,"Category","Strategy","Cost","Incr. Cost","Eff","Incr. Eff","ICER","NMB","CE"]
[null,"TDC for ambulatory care",49.75,"cOutpatientCare",null,"Undominated","Standard Care",1522.7961598137811,null,109.40056476002853,null,null,{"$f":"J22*WTP - H22","v":2569390.4757008567},13.919454283934027]
[null,"TDC for inpatient care",1296.6825000000001,"cInpatientCare",null,"Undominated","Ribavirin",1601.7058066015209,78.909646787739803,112.01677843557511,2.6162136755465752,30.161774447285588,{"$f":"J23*WTP - H23","v":2630792.5874294136},14.298802634488544]
[null,"TDC for intensive care unit at a hospital (with ventilation)",196.77775,"cICUWithVentilation"]
[null,"TDC on Ribavirine on top of standard care costs",101.01,"cRibavirine"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when healthy",1,"vQoLHealthy"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when dead",0,"vQoLDead"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when healed",0.95,"vQoLHealed"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when infected",0.9,"vQoLInfected"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when diseased",0.26,"vQoLDiseased"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when suffering from a relapse",0.4,"vQoLRelapse"]
[null,"Probability to experience a relapse, when healed before",2.229653478835969E-3,"pHealedToRelapse"]
[null,"Laboratory Cost for a PCR virus test",59,"cPCRTest"]
[null,"TDC for intensive care unit at a hospital (without ventilation)",754.21124999999995,"cICUWithoutVentilation"]
[null,"Probability to Die from a Nipah virus disease",0.14161280065236337,"pDiseasedToDead (Defined in node Standard Care)"]
[null,"Probability to Die from a Nipah virus disease",8.2879363776240611E-2,"pDiseasedToDead (Defined in node Ribavirin)"]

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[null,"Strategy",1,"Standard Care"]
[null,"States","All"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Healthy - State 1.1",null,null,null,null,null,"Infected - State 1.2",null,null,null,null,"Diseased - State 1.3",null,null,null,null,null,"Dead - State 1.4",null,null,"Healed - State 1.5",null,null,null,null,null,"Relapse - State 1.6"]
[null,null,null,"Cohort State Proportions",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cohort %",null,null,null,"Payoff 1 - Life Expectancy","Payoff 3 - Quality of Life","Cohort %",null,null,"Payoff 1 - Life Expectancy","Payoff 3 - Quality of Life","Cohort %",null,null,"Payoff 2 - Total Direct Cost","Payoff 1 - Life Expectancy","Payoff 3 - Quality of Life","Cohort %",null,"Payoff 3 - Quality of Life","Cohort %",null,null,null,"Payoff 1 - Life Expectancy","Payoff 3 - Quality of Life","Cohort %",null,null,"Payoff 2 - Total Direct Cost","Payoff 1 - Life Expectancy","Payoff 3 - Quality of Life"]
[null,"Cycle",null,"Healthy","Infected","Diseased","Dead","Healed","Relapse","Payoff 2 - Total Direct Cost",null,null,"Payoff 1 - Life Expectancy",null,null,"Payoff 3 - Quality of Life",null,null,null,"Checksum of Cohort %",null,"1.1\n State","1.1.1\n Transition","1.1.2\n Transition","1.1.3\n Transition","1.1\nState","1.1\nState","1.2\n State","1.2.1\n Transition","1.2.2\n Transition","1.2\nState","1.2\nState","1.3\n State","1.3.1\n Transition","1.3.2\n Transition","1.3\nState","1.3\nState","1.3\nState","1.4\n State","1.4.1\n Transition","1.4\nState","1.5\n State","1.5.1\n Transition","1.5.2\n Transition","1.5.3\n Transition","1.5\nState","1.5\nState","1.6\n State","1.6.1\n Transition","1.6.2\n Transition","1.6\nState","1.6\nState","1.6\nState",null,"pHealedToDead","pHealthyToDead"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"No Discount","Discounted","Cum Disc","No Discount","Discounted","Cum Disc","No Discount","Discounted","Cum Disc",null,null,null,"Healthy","HealthyToHealthy","HealthyToInfected","HealthyToDead","Healthy","Healthy","Infected","InfectedToHealed","InfectedToDiseased","Infected","Infected","Diseased","DiseasedToDead","DiseasedToHealed","Diseased","Diseased","Diseased","Dead","DeadToDead","Dead","Healed","HealedToHealed","HealedToRelapse","HealedToDeath","Healed","Healed","Relapse","RelapseToHealed","RelapseToDeath","Relapse","Relapse","Relapse"]
[]
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{"sheet":"State Trans Diag","index":4,"n_rows":28,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":28,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["State Transition Diagram of Strategy:","Standard Care"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
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[]
[]
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[]
[]
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["State Transition Diagram of Strategy:","Ribavirin"]
[]
[null,"Same As","Standard Care"]

{"sheet":"Input Tables","index":5,"n_rows":130,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":130,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[128,0,128,2],[129,0,129,2]]}
["Table: ","tGeneralMortality"]
["Lookup method: ","RowColInterpolate"]
["Out of range: ","Edge value"]
[]
["Index","Age","Mortality"]
[1,50,3.27823E-3]
[2,50,3.27823E-3]
[3,50,3.27823E-3]
[4,50,3.27823E-3]
[5,50,3.27823E-3]
[6,50,3.27823E-3]
[7,50,3.27823E-3]
[8,50,3.27823E-3]
[9,50,3.27823E-3]
[10,50,3.27823E-3]
[11,50,3.27823E-3]
[12,50,3.27823E-3]
[13,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[14,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[15,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[16,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[17,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[18,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[19,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[20,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[21,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[22,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[23,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[24,51,3.6566200000000002E-3]
[25,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[26,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[27,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[28,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[29,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[30,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[31,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[32,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[33,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[34,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[35,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[36,52,4.0499899999999998E-3]
[37,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[38,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[39,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[40,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[41,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[42,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[43,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[44,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[45,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[46,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[47,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[48,53,4.4750199999999997E-3]
[49,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[50,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[51,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[52,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[53,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[54,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[55,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[56,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[57,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[58,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[59,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[60,54,4.9762900000000004E-3]
[61,55,5.6825900000000004E-3]
[62,55,5.6825900000000004E-3]
[63,55,5.6825900000000004E-3]
[64,55,5.6825900000000004E-3]
[65,55,5.6825900000000004E-3]
[66,55,5.6825900000000004E-3]
[67,55,5.6825900000000004E-3]
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[]
[]
[]
["Green cells are editable"]
["Changing this may require manual changes to Excel formulas"]

{"sheet":"Original Data & Results","index":6,"n_rows":26,"n_cols":10,"rows_kept":26,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[3,6,3,9],[8,6,8,9],[13,6,13,9]]}
[]
[null,"Original Data from TreeAge Pro Model"]
[]
[null,"INPUTS",null,null,null,null,"CURRENT MODEL RESULTS"]
[null,"Description","Value","Reference in TreeAge",null,null,{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!F16","v":"Strategy"},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!G16","v":"Cost"},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!H16","v":"Eff"},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!I16","v":"Payoff 3 - \nQuality of Life"}]
[null,"Parameter Variables",null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!F17","v":"Standard Care"},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!G17","v":1522.7961598137811},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!H17","v":109.40056476002853},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!I17","v":103.90601609339367}]
[null,"per definition 100%",1,"pDeadToDead",null,null,{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!F18","v":"Ribavirin"},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!G18","v":1601.7058066015209},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!H18","v":112.01677843557511},{"$f":"'Inputs & Results'!I18","v":106.38824661883875}]
[null,"Probability to be infected by Nipah virus, in an active outbreak",0.10209923998815162,"pHealthyToInfected"]
[null,"Probability to get the overt disease, when infected",0.42409855093467608,"pInfectedToDiseased",null,null,"ORIGINAL MODEL RESULTS FROM EXCEL"]
[null,"Probability to Die when experiencing a relapse of the Nipa virus disease",4.8402125993473155E-2,"pRelapseToDeath",null,null,"Strategy","Cost","Eff","Payoff 3 - \nQuality of Life"]
[null,"TDC for drugs in standard care",25,"cDrugs",null,null,"Standard Care",1522.7961598137811,109.40056476002853,103.90601609339367]
[null,"TDC for ambulatory care",49.75,"cOutpatientCare",null,null,"Ribavirin",1601.7058066015209,112.01677843557511,106.38824661883875]
[null,"TDC for inpatient care",1296.6825000000001,"cInpatientCare"]
[null,"TDC for intensive care unit at a hospital (with ventilation)",196.77775,"cICUWithVentilation",null,null,"ORIGINAL MODEL RESULTS FROM TREEAGE PRO"]
[null,"TDC on Ribavirine on top of standard care costs",101.01,"cRibavirine",null,null,"Strategy","Cost","Eff","Payoff 3 - \nQuality of Life"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when healthy",1,"vQoLHealthy",null,null,"Standard Care",1522.7961598137808,109.40056476002853,103.90601609339367]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when dead",0,"vQoLDead",null,null,"Ribavirin",1601.7058066015209,112.01677843557511,106.38824661883875]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when healed",0.95,"vQoLHealed"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when infected",0.9,"vQoLInfected"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when diseased",0.26,"vQoLDiseased"]
[null,"Quality of Life estimate when suffering from a relapse",0.4,"vQoLRelapse"]
[null,"Probability to experience a relapse, when healed before",2.229653478835969E-3,"pHealedToRelapse"]
[null,"Laboratory Cost for a PCR virus test",59,"cPCRTest"]
[null,"TDC for intensive care unit at a hospital (without ventilation)",754.21124999999995,"cICUWithoutVentilation"]
[null,"Probability to Die from a Nipah virus disease",0.14161280065236337,"pDiseasedToDead (Defined in node Standard Care)"]
[null,"Probability to Die from a Nipah virus disease",8.2879363776240611E-2,"pDiseasedToDead (Defined in node Ribavirin)"]

{"sheet":"Time Discounting","index":7,"n_rows":125,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":125,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Global Discounting"]
[]
["Cycle",null,"Payoff 1 - \nLife Expectancy","Payoff 2 - \nTotal Direct Cost","Payoff 3 - \nQuality of Life"]
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{"sheet":"TP Internal Formulas","index":8,"n_rows":45,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":45,"cut":false,"hidden":true,"merged":[[44,0,44,2],[2,0,2,10],[3,0,3,10],[29,0,29,10],[39,0,39,10],[43,0,43,2]]}
["EXTRAS"]
[]
["This worksheet includes elements from the TreeAge Pro model that are not actively used in the exported Excel model."]
["They are included here for reference only."]
[]
["TreeAge Pro Variable Sensitivity Analysis Range"]
[]
["Name","Low","High"]
["pDeadToDead",0.1,0.1]
["pHealthyToInfected",0.1,0.1]
["pInfectedToDiseased",0.1,0.1]
["pRelapseToDeath",0.1,0.1]
["cDrugs",0.1,0.1]
["cOutpatientCare",0.1,0.1]
["cInpatientCare",0.1,0.1]
["cICUWithVentilation",0.1,0.1]
["cRibavirine",0.1,0.1]
["vQoLHealthy",0.1,0]
["vQoLDead",0.1,0.1]
["vQoLHealed",0.1,0.1]
["vQoLInfected",0.1,0.1]
["vQoLDiseased",0.1,0.1]
["vQoLRelapse",0.1,0.1]
["pHealedToRelapse",0.1,0.1]
["cPCRTest",0.1,0.1]
["cICUWithoutVentilation",0.1,0.1]
["pDiseasedToDead (Defined in node Standard Care)",0.1,0.1]
["pDiseasedToDead (Defined in node Ribavirin)",0.1,0.1]
[]
["Sensitivity analysis ranges are used in TreeAge Pro, but not in the converted Excel model."]
[]
[]
["TreeAge Pro Variable Formulas"]
[]
["Name","Value"]
["pHealedToDead","probtoprob(pHealthyToDead; 1/4)"]
["pHealthyToDead","probtoprob(tGeneralMortality[_stage;2]; 1/4)"]
["cNipahInfection","cDrugs"]
[]
["Formulas above are integrated into cohort analysis sheets in the converted Excel model."]
[]
[]
[]
["Green cells are editable"]
["Gray cells - no impact on calculation"]